Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(4:31) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to DET 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model