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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
46.8%
LA
53.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LA on 7 more days rest than CAR
  • Case Keenum (LA): -0.039 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
LA 23
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CAR

Vernon Butler DT Out Ankle
Michael Oher T Out Concussion
Shaq Thompson LB Out Knee
Mario Addison DE Questionable Groin
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Shoulder
Luke Kuechly LB Questionable Groin
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Elbow

LA

Nelson Spruce WR Out Calf
Michael Brockers DT Questionable Groin
Jamon Brown G Questionable Hand
William Hayes DE Questionable Ankle
Trumaine Johnson CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 13
–
LA 10

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:49 TD CAR (3:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – LA 0
  • Q4 11:17 FG CAR (11:17) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. CAR 10 – LA 0
  • Q4 08:06 FG LA (8:06) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CAR 10 – LA 3
  • Q4 03:23 FG CAR (3:23) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. CAR 13 – LA 3
  • Q4 00:38 TD LA (:38) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – LA 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 61%

    (11:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%

    (9:59) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 1, impetus ends at LA 1, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 3 for 2 yards (10-C.Brown).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to CAR 47, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-46-C.Harkey.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 75 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-13-M.Thomas.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:54) 8-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LA 4, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 14 yards (57-J.Cash).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%

    (13:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on CAR-95-C.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 11.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:19) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LA 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 46 for 5 yards (22-M.Griffin).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 53%

    (6:39) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback. Penalty on CAR-59-L.Kuechly, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LA-23-B.Cunningham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:06) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 48 for 22 yards (56-A.Klein; 57-J.Cash). PENALTY on LA-34-C.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 45.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 58%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to CAR 39 for -1 yards (56-A.Klein; 59-L.Kuechly).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 20 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 74%

    (:34) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 19 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 53%

    (9:36) 8-A.Lee punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to CAR 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

    (3:27) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LA 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (11:17) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (8:06) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (3:23) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-B.Cunningham to LA 37 for 11 yards (58-T.Davis).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.