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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.59 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model