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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to CAR 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model