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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model