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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model