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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 48 for 22 yards (56-A.Klein; 57-J.Cash). PENALTY on LA-34-C.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP