Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

(2:39) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-B.Cunningham to LA 37 for 11 yards (58-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.40 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP