4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYJ
46.8%
CLE
53.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
CLE 21
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Bruce Carter LB Out Quadricep
Darron Lee LB Out Ankle
Nick Mangold C Doubtful Ankle
Brent Qvale T Doubtful Neck
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Doubtful Ankle
Buster Skrine CB Doubtful Knee
Ryan Clady T Questionable Shoulder
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

CLE

Cody Kessler QB Out Concussion
Corey Coleman WR Out Hand
Marcus Burley CB Questionable Hamstring
Joe Haden CB Questionable Groin
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 31
–
CLE 28

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:52 TD CLE (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 16-A.Hawkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 03:15 FG CLE (3:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NYJ 0 – CLE 10
  • Q2 12:51 TD NYJ (12:51) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – CLE 10
  • Q2 01:55 TD CLE (1:55) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE #72 Coleman reports as an eligible receiver. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 7 – CLE 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 3-C.Parkey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NYJ 7 – CLE 20
  • Q3 08:24 TD NYJ (8:24) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – CLE 20
  • Q3 02:15 TD NYJ (2:15) 22-M.Forte left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ #72 & 70 both report as eligible receivers. NYJ 20 – CLE 20
  • Q4 09:42 TD NYJ (9:42) 22-M.Forte right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 27 – CLE 20
  • Q4 04:08 FG NYJ (4:08) 2-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 31 – CLE 20
  • Q4 00:15 TD CLE (:15) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 16-A.Hawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 31 – CLE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-45-R.Miles.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYJ 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 40 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:05) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-T.Purdum. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 18 for 13 yards (51-J.Stanford; 17-C.Peake).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%

    (3:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-J.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 15 yards (25-G.Atkinson III).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:50) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 28 for 15 yards (49-T.Jones).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 21%

    (8:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to NYJ 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 34 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:34) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-53-M.Catapano.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:04) 3-C.Parkey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 51%

    (5:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 21 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:15) 22-M.Forte left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ #72 & 70 both report as eligible receivers.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 21%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-32-J.Burris.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (4:08) 2-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.