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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.68 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP