4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYJ 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 40 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model