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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 4

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 22-M.Forte left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ #72 & 70 both report as eligible receivers.

The Three Options

GO +3.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model