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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 64

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 34 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model