Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 20 – New York Jets 21

(1:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.60 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model