Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 62

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(7:05) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-T.Purdum. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 18 for 13 yards (51-J.Stanford; 17-C.Peake).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.45 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model