Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-J.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 15 yards (25-G.Atkinson III).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model