Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- DET defense: +0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.193 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.181 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
WAS
DET
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:42 FG DET (9:42) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. WAS 0 – DET 3
- Q2 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – DET 3
- Q3 07:28 TD DET (7:28) 77-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 34-Z.Zenner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DET 9
- Q4 13:14 FG DET (13:14) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. WAS 3 – DET 13
- Q4 08:23 TD WAS (8:23) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 32-R.Kelley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – DET 13
- Q4 01:13 TD WAS (1:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – DET 13
- Q4 00:22 TD DET (:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-A.Boldin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – DET 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 74%
(14:01) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(8:42) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
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Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 77%
(3:56) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 85%
(9:42) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 82%
(4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:28) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to WAS 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 41-W.Blackmon to WAS 29 for 16 yards (34-Z.Zenner).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%
(:04) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 52%
(10:21) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to DET 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.
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Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(13:14) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:27) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to WAS 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 41-W.Blackmon.