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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 9

Detroit Lions 10 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model