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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to WAS 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP