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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 71

Detroit Lions 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to WAS 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 41-W.Blackmon to WAS 29 for 16 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model