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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 41

Washington Commanders 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to DET 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP