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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 27

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP