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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 25

Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.49 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP