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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 68

Detroit Lions 13 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to WAS 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 41-W.Blackmon.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model