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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 2.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

BAL
48.0%
NYJ
52.0%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Wind 36 mph
  • NYJ defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.021 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Geno Smith (NYJ) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BAL

Elvis Dumervil LB Out Foot
C.J. Mosley LB Out Thigh
Kendrick Lewis S Doubtful Thigh
Steve Smith WR Doubtful Ankle
Terrell Suggs LB Doubtful Biceps
Shareece Wright CB Doubtful Thigh
Marshal Yanda G Doubtful Shoulder
Kamar Aiken WR Questionable Thigh
Joe Flacco QB Questionable right Shoulder
Devin Hester WR Questionable Thigh
Jerraud Powers CB Questionable Thigh
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Foot
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Concussion

NYJ

Braedon Bowman TE Out Knee
Darron Lee LB Out Ankle
Brent Qvale T Out Neck
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Out Ankle
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle
Ryan Clady T Questionable Shoulder
Nick Mangold C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16
–
NYJ 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 TD BAL (9:45) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 15, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 04:31 FG BAL (4:31) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 01:24 TD NYJ (1:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 81-Q.Enunwa for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 12:01 FG BAL (12:01) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 01:51 TD NYJ (1:51) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 22-M.Forte for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG BAL (:04) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 05:03 FG NYJ (5:03) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BAL 16 – NYJ 17
  • Q3 01:00 TD NYJ (1:00) 22-M.Forte right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – NYJ 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:52) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 9 for 4 yards (42-M.Huff).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:45) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 15, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 8%

    (6:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%

    (4:31) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (12:01) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:00) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-D.Hester to BAL 34 for 9 yards (47-K.Davis). FUMBLES (47-K.Davis), ball out of bounds at BAL 34.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 23%

    (4:42) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 27 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 72%

    (:04) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 17%

    (11:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 17 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to NYJ 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to BAL 44, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-D.Hester MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 42. 14-D.Hester to BAL 42 for no gain (32-J.Burris).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:03) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:57) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 89-J.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 27 for 16 yards (54-Z.Orr).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 14%

    (11:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:56) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to NYJ 28, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-D.Hester to BAL 19 for no gain (17-C.Peake; 95-J.Martin).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:21) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to NYJ 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 32 for -2 yards (84-D.Waller).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (3:09) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-B.Williams), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards, ball out of bounds at BAL 30.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 19%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Moore (20-M.Williams).