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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 33

New York Jets 24 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-B.Williams), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards, ball out of bounds at BAL 30.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model