Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(9:45) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 15, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.09 EP
52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP