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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 71

New York Jets 24 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-D.Hester to BAL 19 for no gain (17-C.Peake; 95-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model