Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 16 – New York Jets 24

(14:57) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 89-J.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 27 for 16 yards (54-Z.Orr).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model