4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 16 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Moore (20-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.20 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model