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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 82

Baltimore Ravens 16 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to NYJ 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 32 for -2 yards (84-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model