4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 47

New York Jets 24 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.92 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -2.08 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP