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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

SF
29.0%
BUF
71.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.116 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.096 EPA/dropback (SF starting Colin Kaepernick in place of Blaine Gabbert)
  • Wind 22 mph
  • BUF defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SF on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

SF 18
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Jimmie Ward CB Out Quadricep
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Groin
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Foot
Glenn Dorsey DT Questionable Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Quadricep

BUF

Marcell Dareus DT Doubtful Hamstring
Cyrus Kouandjio T Questionable Ankle
Zach Brown LB Questionable Foot
Corbin Bryant DT Questionable Ankle
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Ankle
Patrick Lewis C Questionable Knee
Colton Schmidt P Questionable right Quadricep
Corey White CB Questionable Shoulder
Aaron Williams S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 16
–
BUF 45

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:47 FG SF (5:47) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 00:18 TD BUF (:18) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: J.Felton. Option pitch. SF 3 – BUF 6
  • Q2 14:07 TD SF (14:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at BUF 25, crossed to middle after catch. SF 9 – BUF 7
  • Q2 10:24 TD BUF (10:24) Direct snap to L.McCoy (T.Taylor at WR). (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – BUF 13
  • Q2 05:59 FG SF (5:59) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 13 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:25 FG BUF (:25) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. SF 13 – BUF 17
  • Q3 02:40 TD BUF (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 17-J.Hunter for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, slanting to sideline. SF 13 – BUF 23
  • Q4 14:53 FG SF (14:53) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 16 – BUF 24
  • Q4 10:59 TD BUF (10:59) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.Incognito. SF 16 – BUF 30
  • Q4 10:36 TD BUF (10:36) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 10-R.Woods for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, crossing from right. SF 16 – BUF 37
  • Q4 05:47 TD BUF (5:47) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – BUF 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 38%

    (12:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 27 yards to BUF 13, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (5:47) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%

    (5:59) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (:25) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to SF 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-J.Kerley to SF 31 for 12 yards (35-M.Gillislee).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to BUF 38, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-13-A.Burbridge.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to SF 5, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to BUF 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 45 for 13 yards (56-S.Skov).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 17%

    (6:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 38%

    (4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Davis up the middle to BUF 40 for no gain (52-P.Brown, 56-L.McCray).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%

    (14:53) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 37 for 3 yards (13-A.Burbridge). PENALTY on BUF-56-L.McCray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 37.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Smith (28-R.Darby). Receiver and coverage along sideline, 8 yds. into end zone.