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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model