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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Davis up the middle to BUF 40 for no gain (52-P.Brown, 56-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model