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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to BUF 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 45 for 13 yards (56-S.Skov).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model