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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Buffalo Bills 45

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Smith (28-R.Darby). Receiver and coverage along sideline, 8 yds. into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP