Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 17 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(9:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to SF 5, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.04 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model