Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Buffalo Bills 45

(4:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.11 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -2.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model