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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 4 at the 49
Buffalo Bills 17 – San Francisco 49ers 13
What Actually Happened
(6:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.02 EP
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.01 EP
- 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK
-1.84 EP
- 17% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
- 83% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
What Happened
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
