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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Monday 2016-10-17 · 20:30 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

NYJ
46.9%
ARI
53.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts (ARI starting Carson Palmer in place of Drew Stanton)
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than NYJ
  • NYJ offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 23
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYJ

David Harris LB Doubtful Hamstring
Nick Mangold C Questionable Knee
Darrelle Revis CB Questionable Hamstring
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Questionable Ankle

ARI

Ed Stinson DT Out Toe
Mike Iupati G Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 3
–
ARI 28

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:03 TD ARI (10:03) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left end for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 12:12 FG NYJ (12:12) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – ARI 7
  • Q2 06:46 TD ARI (6:46) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – ARI 13
  • Q3 05:28 TD ARI (5:28) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – ARI 20
  • Q4 08:27 TD ARI (8:27) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 15-M.Floyd for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 3 – ARI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:22) 9-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-50-G.Martin.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to NYJ 48, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown. PENALTY on ARI-10-B.Golden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 48.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 24 for 6 yards (54-B.Carter).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (3:37) 9-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ARI 35, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 32 for -3 yards (17-C.Peake).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:26) 9-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (12:12) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to ARI 37, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:15) 9-R.Quigley punts 36 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:30) 9-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to NYJ 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 45%

    (:14) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to ARI 7, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-45-R.Miles.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 32 for 1 yard (32-J.Burris).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 32%

    (6:18) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell up the middle to ARI 46 for 3 yards (51-K.Minter).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 37%

    (4:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 17-C.Peake INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at ARI 34. 32-T.Mathieu ran ob at ARI 38 for 4 yards. Penalty on NYJ-15-B.Marshall, Illegal Shift, declined.