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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 9-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-50-G.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.10 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP