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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) 9-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model