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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 44

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to ARI 7, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-45-R.Miles.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.41 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP