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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 69

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP