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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 49

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell up the middle to ARI 46 for 3 yards (51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.21 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model