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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 88

New York Jets 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to NYJ 48, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown. PENALTY on ARI-10-B.Golden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model