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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 21

New York Jets 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model