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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CLE
42.9%
TEN
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): -0.020 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CLE

Joel Bitonio G Out Foot
Corey Coleman WR Out Hand
Seth DeValve TE Out Knee
Randall Telfer TE Out Ankle
Josh McCown QB Out left Shoulder
Xavier Cooper DE Questionable Shoulder
Joe Haden CB Questionable Groin
Tramon Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Gary Barnidge TE Questionable Forearm

TEN

Al Woods DT Out Calf
Cody Riggs CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 26
–
TEN 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 TD TEN (10:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 18-R.Matthews for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 08:52 FG CLE (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – TEN 7
  • Q1 02:12 FG CLE (2:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 6 – TEN 7
  • Q2 12:02 TD TEN (12:02) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-K.Wright for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 6 – TEN 13
  • Q2 00:47 TD CLE (:47) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – TEN 14
  • Q3 09:36 TD TEN (9:36) 29-D.Murray left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – TEN 20
  • Q4 06:54 TD TEN (6:54) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 80-A.Fasano for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – TEN 27
  • Q4 02:10 TD CLE (2:10) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-K.Dodd]. CLE 19 – TEN 28
  • Q4 00:30 TD CLE (:30) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 25 – TEN 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 29-D.Johnson pushed ob at TEN 26 for 53 yards (45-J.Fowler). PENALTY on CLE-81-R.Higgins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (2:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CLE 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 22 for 6 yards (26-A.Andrews).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 41 for 7 yards (53-J.Schobert; 54-D.Alexander).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to TEN 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 49 for 4 yards (33-J.Poyer).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 55%

    (7:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to CLE 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:49) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to TEN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to CLE 46 for 10 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on TEN-26-A.Andrews, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 45.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard. PENALTY on CLE-41-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to TEN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 30 for 10 yards (59-T.Carder).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:01) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 27 for 8 yards (41-T.Howard).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 19%

    (4:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 29-D.Johnson.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:48) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor to CLE 48 for 14 yards (24-D.Stafford) [99-J.Casey].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 16-A.Hawkins pushed ob at TEN 5 for 22 yards (54-A.Williamson).