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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to TEN 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 49 for 4 yards (33-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model